Summary

  • Market Backdrop: Q3 brought elevated volatility and crosscurrents across SMID Cap equities.
  • Earnings: Q3 earnings growth reached 33%, the strongest pace in over four years, driven by AI infrastructure investment.
  • Headwinds: AI enthusiasm moderated, sharply correcting momentum stocks. Rising rates, including the Fed's first hike in three years and a 10-year yield above 5%, pressured lower-quality, smaller-cap names.
  • Performance: The SMID Cap Core Strategy returned-0.56% net, outperforming the Russell 2500's -6.37%.
  • Drivers: Stock selection in Health Care, Technology, and Industrials led results. Quality, valuation discipline, and limited exposure to expensive momentum stocks also helped.
  • Outlook: Earnings growth and interest rates should drive the market. The focus on high-quality, attractively valued, lower-volatility businesses positions the strategy for a range of environments.

Video Transcript

Hello, I’m Brian Kute, Senior Portfolio Manager for the Johnson SMID Cap Core Strategy.

The third quarter was characterized by significant market crosscurrents and elevated volatility across SMID-cap equities.

On the positive side, corporate earnings continued to recover from the 2024 cyclical trough.

Second-quarter earnings growth reached 33%, the strongest pace in more than four years, driven in large part by continued investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and related technologies.

At the same time, investor enthusiasm around the AI theme moderated, leading to a sharp correction in many momentum-driven stocks.

Rising interest rates added further pressure, particularly among lower-quality and smaller-cap companies.

The Federal Reserve raised short-term rates for the first time in three years, while higher oil prices pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, creating a more challenging backdrop for equities.

The SMID Cap Core Strategy declined 0.56% net of fees during the quarter, compared to a 6.37% decline for the Russell 2500 Index.

Strong stock selection was the primary driver of relative outperformance, with Health Care, Technology, and Industrials leading results.

Our emphasis on quality businesses, valuation discipline, and limited exposure to the market's most expensive momentum stocks also proved beneficial during the quarter.

Looking ahead, we believe market direction will continue to be driven by earnings growth and interest rate trends.

While uncertainty remains elevated, we believe the portfolio's focus on high-quality businesses, attractive valuations, and lower-volatility characteristics positions us well for a wide range of market environments.

Thank you for your interest in our Strategy.

Published 11/06/2026

Disclaimer:

The Russell 2500 Index is unmanaged, does not reflect the deduction of fees, transaction costs, or other expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. Index returns assume reinvestment of dividends. The index is shown for comparison only. The Strategy's holdings, sector weights, market-capitalization mix, and risk characteristics differ from the index, so its performance and volatility may differ materially. Returns for periods longer than one year are annualized. The commentary contains the opinions of Johnson Asset Management's investment team as of September 30, 2026. These opinions may change without notice and should not be read as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or sector. Statements about earnings growth, interest rates, inflation, valuations, geopolitical developments, or portfolio positioning are forward-looking. They are based on current expectations and assumptions that may prove wrong, and actual results may differ materially. References to specific securities are for illustration only. It should not be assumed that investments in the securities identified were or will be profitable. Top performers and detractors reflect each holding's contribution to the return of a representative account in the SMID Cap Core Equity Composite for the quarter. They are selected by contribution using objective criteria applied consistently each period, not by performance results. Equity investments are subject to market, sector, and issuer-specific risk, and you may lose money. Johnson Asset Management (JAM) is a division of Johnson Investment Counsel, Inc. (“JIC”), an independent and privately owned Midwestern based investment advisory firm registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Johnson Asset Management manages institutional separate account portfolios for a wide variety of for-profit and nonprofit organizations, public agencies, public and private retirement plans, and personal trusts of all sizes. It may also serve as sub-adviser for mutual funds. JIC’s fees are available upon request and may be found in our Form ADV Part 2A. Performance data quoted herein represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. All data is current as of September 30, 2026 unless otherwise noted. Returns and net asset value will fluctuate. To determine if this strategy is appropriate for you, carefully consider the investment objectives, risk factors, and expenses before investing. Individual account management and construction will vary depending on each client's investment needs and objectives. Investments employing JIC’s strategies are NOT insured by the FDIC or by any other Federal Government Agency, are NOT Bank deposits, are NOT guaranteed by any Bank or any Bank affiliate, and MAY lose value, including possible loss of principal. Johnson Asset Management claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS). GIPS® is a registered trademark of CFA Institute. CFA Institute does not endorse or promote this organization, nor does it warrant the accuracy or quality of the content contained herein. A complete list of firm composites and performance results and the policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance, and preparing GIPS compliant presentations are available upon request by calling 513-389-2770. Composite: The Johnson SMID Cap Core Equity Composite was created on January 1, 2013, and includes all of JIC’s fee paying, fully discretionary institutional equity portfolios with a minimum of $1,000,000 and an investment objective of small and mid-cap equities. The benchmark for this composite is the Russell 2500, a broadly diversified mid and small cap equity universe of U.S. companies. Eligible new portfolios are included in the composite the first full month after being deemed fully invested. The returns from terminated portfolios are included prior to the date of termination. Effective January 2010, a portfolio will be temporarily removed from this composite if it experiences a net inflow or outflow of cash of 30% or more during a one-month period. Portfolios in this composite include cash, cash equivalents, investment securities, interest and dividends. The U.S. dollar is the base currency. All returns reflect the reinvestment of investment income (dividends and/or interest) and capital gains. Valuations and returns are stated in U.S. dollars. Trade date accounting is used. Portfolio returns are calculated using time weighed return methodology on a monthly basis. Net returns shown reflect gross performance less the highest fee schedule for this strategy. The highest investment management fee schedule for this strategy is 1.00%. Actual client returns could also be reduced by brokerage commissions, custodial fees, and other client paid expenses detailed in JIC’s Form ADV Part 2A.

Brian Kute
Meet the author

Brian T. Kute, CFA

Brian has been a part of Johnson Investment Counsel since 1994, and has since become the Managing Director of Research. He is a shareholder of the firm and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® (CFA®) designation. Prior to joining the firm, Brian worked for Gradison-McDonald.

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